PRESIDENT Donald Trump will “appear” to have won by a landslide on election night – but Joe Biden will beat him when all the votes are counted, according to analysts.
Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsohn told Axios that votes coming in on November 3 could very well show that Trump won re-election, but described it as a “red mirage.”
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"We are sounding an alarm and saying that this is a very real possibility, that the data is going to show on election night an incredible victory for Donald Trump," Mendelsohn said.
"When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after Election Day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was exactly that, a mirage.
"It looked like Donald Trump was in the lead and he fundamentally was not when every ballot gets counted."
Hawkfish, a Democratic data and analytics firm, is funded by former New York City mayor and presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg.
Per a possible scenario from the group, Trump “could hold a projected lead of 408-130 electoral votes on election night” – even if only 15 percent of mail-in votes are counted.
But once 75 percent of the mailed-in ballots are counted – which could be, say, four days later – Biden could be in the lead.
This particular scenario from Hawkfish shows Biden winning the Electoral College 334-204.
In the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton beat Trump by nearly 2.9million popular votes with 65,844,954 to his 62,979,879.
But Trump won 306 Electoral College votes to Clinton’s 232.
Hawkfish’s scenario was partly based on polling from FiveThirtyEight, per Axios.
Tim Murtaugh, the Trump campaign communications director, said; “The news media should get out of the business of predicting the future.”
During the 2016 election, Clinton was expected to beat Trump by a massive landslide – based on polling from likely voters leading up to Election Day.
Most national surveys overstated what would likely be a narrow popular vote advantage for Clinton and led many to believe she was a shoo-in to win the Electoral College.
Because of the coronavirus pandemic, states have expanded their mail-in voting laws and Americans are expected to vote-by-mail more this fall than in any other election.
The shift to voting via the US Postal Service is increasing the chances that the US will not know the winner of November’s presidential race on election night.
It’s a scenario that is fueling worries about whether Trump will use the delay to sow doubts about the results.
Delayed results have been common in a few states where elections are already conducted largely by mail.
But a presidential election hasn’t been left in limbo since 2000, when ballot irregularities in Florida led to weeks of chaos and court fights.
“It may be several days before we know the outcome of the election,” Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s Democratic secretary of state, told The Associated Press in May.
“We have to prepare for that now and accept that reality.”
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