DAN HODGES: After Vladimir Putin’s war and Covid, the next election will be won by anyone who offers us normality

Shortly after King Charles had departed Westminster Hall following Monday’s historic address to Parliament, Liz Truss and Keir Starmer emerged together and strolled alone across New Palace Yard. Their conversation was a touch stilted, but each was aware of the importance of demonstrating unity as the nation continued its orderly – if painful – regal transition.

But this week their poignant truce will come to an end. And politicians of all persuasions are already starting to assess how this defining moment in British history has reshaped the political landscape.

Some Labour strategists believe it has proved transformational for Starmer. They think his widely praised Commons tribute to Her Late Majesty, and dignified demeanour during the period of national mourning, has finally enabled him to connect with the British people.

‘Keir spent a bit of time thinking about what he wanted to say on the Queen’s passing,’ a Labour source told me. ‘It was obvious to anyone who knows him, that was authentically him. It showed the country the genuine, decent bloke he is.’

Yet some of his Shadow Ministers still see political risks in their leader’s steadfast embrace of the Monarchy, particularly with their national conference in Liverpool a week away.

‘The hall will probably be fine,’ one said, ‘but all it takes is a couple of our MPs to turn up to a fringe event and say ‘This is a good opportunity to start a debate about the Crown’ and we’re in the middle of a massive row.’

Shortly after King Charles had departed Westminster Hall following Monday’s historic address to Parliament, Liz Truss and Keir Starmer emerged together and strolled alone across New Palace Yard

Tory Ministers and MPs have also been scrutinising their own leader, as she faces the first major test of her premiership. And their judgment is slightly more circumspect.

They were impressed by Liz Truss’s own tribute to the Queen. And they admired the way she delivered the energy price freeze statement minutes after being informed of the Monarch’s deteriorating health.

But some of those who have been working with the Prime Minister up close over the past few days believe she has been jolted by the enormity of taking office in such unprecedented and challenging circumstances. ‘From the moment her victory was announced it just hasn’t stopped,’ one told me. ‘She’s looking absolutely knackered. You can see the sheer emotional impact of all this in her eyes.’

However raw emotions are, the unrelenting political cycle is set to reassert itself. In particular, the battle over the economy will resume this week when new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveils the FEAB – the inelegant Treasury acronym for what civil servants have dubbed ‘a fiscal event akin to a Budget’.

From Labour’s perspective, it’s a battle that can’t begin a moment too soon. Starmer’s team believe Truss has already made two major tactical blunders – first by coming out so defiantly against an extension of the energy windfall tax, and then by trailing a plan to cut the cap on bankers’ bonuses.

Their conversation was a touch stilted, but each was aware of the importance of demonstrating unity as the nation continued its orderly – if painful – regal transition, writes Dan Hodges 

‘When she came out against the windfall tax during the leadership campaign, we thought she’d probably fudge it when it was over,’ one Starmer aide told me. ‘So we were surprised when she doubled down at her first PMQs. But we’re very glad she did.’

Labour’s delight at the opportunity to paint Truss as the fat- cat’s friend is understandable. But it may also prove misplaced.

Inside No 10 and No 11 there is clear-eyed recognition of how the windfall tax and bankers’ bonus announcements will be exploited by their opponents. But the Prime Minister and Chancellor are playing a longer game.

They have identified three priorities in the run-up to the next Election. The first is securing growth. The second is securing growth. And the third is securing growth.

‘We know we’re going to take a hit,’ one Minister told me, ‘but the key to the next Election is getting the economy firing. And if that means taking some decisions that are unpopular in the short term, Liz and Kwasi are prepared to take them.’

This determination to focus rigidly on economic delivery has been strengthened by fears over the short-term economic impact of the Queen’s death. The basic Treasury assessment is that tomorrow’s bank holiday to allow the country to observe the State funeral will cost the economy £1.2 billion. And that’s before the cost of the cancellation of football matches and other public events prior to the funeral is factored in. Despite that sober analysis, some Ministers are again looking further ahead. ‘Yes, there’s an increased chance we won’t be able to avoid a recession,’ one told me, ‘but then you need to realise what’s coming. Next year we’re going to be having a Coronation. And that will be a national party on a scale we haven’t seen for over 70 years.’

But the biggest political impact of the momentous events of the past fortnight will not be economic. Nor will it be the way they have recast perceptions of our politicians. Instead, it will come from the imprint that has been left on the national psyche.

In the wake of the 9/11 attacks, Tony Blair famously observed: ‘The kaleidoscope has been shaken. The pieces are in flux.’

Today, Britain is that kaleidoscope. We’ve had the drama of Brexit and the chaos of the attempt to reverse it. Having finally broken out of our constitutional paralysis, we were plunged immediately into the midst of the Covid nightmare, and lockdown. No sooner had the coronavirus curfew been lifted than attack helicopters were swooping down on Ukraine, the worst cost-of-living crisis for a generation trailing in their wake.

Then, just as our new Prime Minister announced she’d found £150 billion to mitigate the energy giants’ greed, and it appeared Russia’s butchers were finally in retreat, the nation stood in stunned silence as flags were lowered to half-mast.

Politicians love proselytising about their radicalism. Keir Starmer secured the Labour leadership by posing as Jeremy Corbyn in a sharper suit. Liz Truss became Prime Minister by framing herself as the Iron Lizzie. But this morning both are waking to a new reality. Victory at the next General Election won’t be secured by the candidate who seizes the mantle of change. It’ll be won by whoever convinces voters the hurricane of change that has torn at them for the past five years will finally abate.

Politicians love proselytising about their radicalism. Keir Starmer secured the Labour leadership by posing as Jeremy Corbyn in a sharper suit.

‘We’ve basically got to replicate the Biden strategy,’ a senior Labour strategist told me. ‘We need to convince people that we can get the country back to normal. That we can give everyone a break from the craziness.’

A Truss ally delivered precisely the same analysis of the electoral contours. ‘The key for us is to show the country we have everything back under control. That there won’t be any more shocks, and that they don’t have to worry about paying the bills at the end of the month. If we do that, then we’ll win the next Election quite comfortably.’

Unsurprisingly, both sides believe they are best placed to navigate this new political terrain. Team Starmer think his cynical fire-sale of the ten Corbynite ‘pledges’ that secured him the leadership has been vindicated. As has his insistence his party embraces the language of patriotism.

But the Prime Minister’s supporters think that the political fundamentals are now shifting in their favour. ‘Every Election boils down to a choice between continuity or change,’ one told me, ‘and the reality is we’re in government and over the past few years people have had enough change to last them a lifetime.’

It would be dangerous for Liz Truss to assume that a nation facing a cost-of-living crisis, an NHS waiting-list crisis and a wounded but enraged Putin yearns for continuity. But people certainly crave normality. Whoever can deliver it will become King Charles’s first elected Prime Minister.

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