College football Week 3 betting nuggets: Oklahoma overs, Cincy covers, and more

Totals continue to trend towards the under this season. Overall, the under is 92-64-3 (.590), including 56-36-3 in FBS-versus-FBS matchups, 32-18-2 in Power 5 matchups and 7-0 in ranked-versus-ranked games.

All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and subject to change.

Saturday


Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (-22, 61.5), Noon ET

  • Nebraska has covered three straight non-conference games following 6 straight ATS losses against non-conference teams. All three of the Cornhuskers’ recent covers outside Big Ten play have come as a double-digit favorite (two vs the MAC, one vs FCS).

  • Oklahoma closed last season 8-0 outright and 7-1 ATS before its close call against Tulane in this season’s opener. The Sooners then trounced FCS Western Carolina 76-0 as 52.5-point favorites last week to get to ten straight wins dating to last season (8-2 ATS).

  • The over is 8-4 in Oklahoma’s last 12 games, including three straight.

  • The over is 8-2 in Nebraska’s last ten games against ranked opponents, including 5-2 under Scott Frost. However, the under is 7-2-1 in Nebraska’s last ten games overall.

  • The favorite has covered four of the five previous meetings with a spread of 20 points or more since the 1978 FBS/FCS split . The average winning margin in those five games was 42.4 points.


Michigan State Spartans at No. 24 Miami Hurricanes (-6.5, 56.5), Noon ET on ABC

  • Michigan State is 2-8 ATS in its last ten games against ranked teams.

  • Michigan State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.

  • Michigan State is 6-16 ATS in non-conference games since 2015.

  • Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.

  • Miami is 4-0 outright against Michigan State in the all-time series. The most recent meeting came in 1989.


No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats (-4, 50) at Indiana Hoosiers, Noon ET on ESPN

  • Cincinnati has covered 5 of its last 6 games away from home.

  • Cincinnati is 12-7 ATS against non-conference opponents under Luke Fickell, including 6-2 ATS in its last 8 such games.

  • Indiana has covered eight of its last ten games as an underdog and seven of its last eight home games.


No. 16 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-13.5, 57.5) at Buffalo Bulls, Noon ET on ESPN2

  • The over is 6-1 in Coastal Carolina’s last seven games, including four straight.

  • Coastal Carolina is 9-3-2 ATS since the start of last season. The Chanticleers are covering by more than 10 points per game over that span, trailing only Iowa (12.8).

  • Coastal Carolina is 9-2 ATS in road games since 2019.

  • Buffalo is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games as a home underdog, including five straight covers. However, the last time Buffalo was a home underdog came in 2019 under former head coach Lance Leipold.

  • Double-digit home underdogs are 4-1-1 ATS this season.


No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies at West Virginia Mountaineers (-3, 50.5), Noon ET

  • Virginia Tech is 4-11-1 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3 under Justin Fuente (since 2016).

  • West Virginia is 11-3-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2017, including 4-0-2 ATS under Neal Brown.

  • Virginia Tech has covered 15 of the last 20 meetings dating to 1987, including three straight. The most recent meeting came in 2017, with No. 21 Virginia Tech favored by five points over No. 22 West Virginia. The Hokies covered in a 34-21 win.

  • Unranked teams favored by three or fewer points against AP top 15 opponents are 8-18-2 ATS in the last 20 seasons.


Purdue Boilermakers at No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7, 58.5), 2:30 ET

  • Purdue is 14-3 ATS as a road underdog since 2015, tied with Northwestern for the best such mark in FBS over that span (min. 5 games). That includes 6-1 ATS under Jeff Brohm.

  • Purdue is 15-5 ATS as an underdog under Brohm, regardless of venue.

  • Purdue has covered three straight meetings dating to 2012.

  • Notre Dame has failed to cover three straight games as a favorite and is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season.

  • Notre Dame is laying its fewest points as a ranked team in South Bend against an unranked opponent since they were 6-point favorites against USC in Oct. 2015. The Fighting Irish covered in a 41-31 win.


No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-14.5, 58.5) at No. 11 Florida Gators, 3:30 ET

  • Dan Mullen is 0-10 outright against Nick Saban, but has covered four of the last six meetings, including two straight. That includes a 52-46 loss as a 16.5-point underdog in last season’s SEC championship, the only meeting with Mullen at Florida (the other nine were with Mississippi State).

  • The over has hit in three straight meetings between Mullen and Saban after all seven previous meetings went under.

  • Florida is 31-14-4 ATS against AP top 10 teams over the last 20 seasons. Only Clemson (23-9-1 ATS) has a better such cover percentage over that span (min. 10 games).

  • Alabama is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as a double-digit favorite.

  • Alabama is favored in its 83rd straight game, the longest active streak as a betting favorite in FBS.

  • The over has hit in five straight meetings between Alabama and Florida dating to 2011.

  • This is the fourth time since 2000 that an AP top 15 team has been a 14-point or larger underdog at home. All four instances are against the top-ranked team in the country at the time.

  • Since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, Florida has been a double-digit home underdog once while ranked. The No. 7 Gators were 10.5-point underdogs against No. 1 Florida State in Nov. 1993. Florida failed to cover in a 33-21 loss.


Tulsa Golden Hurricane at No. 9 Ohio State Buckeyes (-24.5, 61), 3:30 ET

  • Tulsa has covered nine straight games against ranked opponents, the longest active streak in FBS. The second-longest streak belongs to Iowa (6).

  • Tulsa is 3-11 ATS against AP top 10 teams since 1995.

  • Tulsa is 6-0 ATS on the road since the start of last season, the most such ATS wins without a loss in FBS over that span.

  • Ohio State has failed to cover three straight as a home favorite and is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against non-conference opponents.

  • C.J. Stroud’s Heisman Trophy odds were 40-1 back in June (Caesars Sportsbook). Stroud is now 10-1, tied for third-shortest with Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler. The last Heisman Trophy winner from Ohio State was Troy Smith (2006).

  • Since 2015, teams favored by 24 or more points following a loss as an AP top 5 team are 2-15 ATS.


Kent State Golden Flashes at No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes (-22.5, 56.5), 3:30 ET

  • Iowa is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games favored by 20 or more points under Kirk Ferentz.

  • Iowa has covered four of its last five games as a favorite.

  • Kent State is 1-9 ATS against AP top 10 teams over the last 20 seasons, including five straight ATS losses.


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 6 Clemson Tigers (-28.5, 52), 3:30 ET on ABC

  • Clemson is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games following a 19-5 ATS run from the middle of the 2018 season entering into the 2019 CFP National Championship.

  • Clemson is 5-0-1 ATS against Georgia Tech since 2015. The Tigers have been favored by over 18 points per game over that stretch and have covered by more than 12 points per game.

  • Georgia Tech is 2-7-1 ATS in its last ten games against ranked opponents.

  • Georgia Tech is 2-9-1 ATS against AP top 10 teams since 2015, the worst such cover percentage in FBS over that span (min. 10 games).


No. 22 Auburn Tigers at No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions (-6, 53), 7:30 ET on ABC

  • Auburn is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games as an underdog, including 0-4 ATS since 2020.

  • Auburn is 2-0 ATS under new head coach Bryan Harsin this season, with both games as a favorite. Harsin went 6-4 as an underdog with Boise State.

  • The over is 16-6-3 in Penn State games against ranked teams under James Franklin (since 2014).

  • Penn State has covered three straight games as a favorite.


No. 19 Arizona State Sun Devils (-3.5, 51) at No. 23 BYU Cougars, 10:15 ET on ESPN

  • Arizona State is 5-12 ATS as a favorite under Herm Edwards (since 2018).

  • The under is 8-2 when Arizona State takes on a ranked opponent under Edwards.

  • Arizona State is 20-7 outright in the all-time series. This will be the first meeting since a BYU win in 1998.

  • BYU has covered three of its last four games as a home underdog after beginning 0-5-1 ATS in those spots under Kalani Sitake.

  • The total has gone under in five straight BYU games.

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