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NFL draft season brings hope to every team’s fan base. It is the time for their team to improve and the time when every fan dreams of future greatness for their picks.
Unfortunately for most teams and their fans, there is more failure than success when you look back at drafts a few years down the road. Though we will all critique the draft classes as soon as they are made in a few weeks, it takes 3-5 years to really know how teams did in any draft. That is what we will try to do here. This is our seventh annual examination of the previous five years of the draft (2016-20) and how teams fared.
The rankings are based upon how many games the draft pick has played, Pro Bowl appearances, first-team All-Pro selections and awards like MVP and Rookie of the Year. We also factored in how much the team has won during the five years because players on losing teams tend to have an easier path to playing time.
Here are the rankings from best to worst with last year’s ranking in parentheses:
1. Ravens (1)
Pro Bowlers: 6
Best Pick: Lamar Jackson (2018, 1st round)
Worst Pick: Hayden Hurst (2018, 1st)
The Ravens repeat as our top drafting team. Jackson, an MVP, is their top pick, but they have nailed many picks in recent years, from Ronnie Stanley to Marlon Humphrey and Orlando Brown.
2. Chiefs (2)
Pro Bowlers: 5
Best Pick: Tyreek Hill (2016, 5th)
Worst Pick: Breeland Speaks (2018, 2nd)
I give Hill the nod over Patrick Mahomes as the Chiefs’ best pick simply because they got him in the fifth round, a remarkable value. The two-time conference champs have built their core through the draft, and now they have to keep it together.
3. Saints (3)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Alvin Kamara (2017, 3rd)
Worst Pick: Sheldon Rankins (2016, 1st)
New Orleans has had the fewest draft picks of any team in the NFL (28) since 2016. The Saints’ 2017 draft is one of the best classes in recent memory, with Marshon Lattimore, Ryan Ramczyk and Kamara all becoming All-Pros.
4. Colts (12)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Quenton Nelson (2018, 1st)
Worst Pick: Quincy Wilson (2017, 2nd)
GM Chris Ballard has done a great job building this roster. If Andrew Luck had not suddenly retired in 2019, this team would be challenging the Chiefs right now. Instead, they are turning to Carson Wentz as their next attempt at solving their quarterback issue.
5. Dolphins (15)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Minkah Fitzpatrick (2018, 1st)
Worst Pick: Charles Harris (2017, 1st)
Some of Miami’s best picks, like Fitzpatrick and tackle Laremy Tunsil, are no longer on their roster, but the Dolphins have used picks received in trades of those players to load up. They drafted 11 players last year and 10 of them appeared in at least half of their games.
6. Bears (7)
Pro Bowlers: 5
Best Pick: Eddie Jackson (2017, 4th)
Worst Pick: Mitchell Trubisky (2017, 1st)
GM Ryan Pace is on the hot seat largely because he chose Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. He has done well, though, in other areas. Jackson was a find in the fourth round, and Pace also took Tarik Cohen in the fourth in that same year.
7. 49ers (11)
Pro Bowlers: 4
Best Pick: George Kittle (2017, 5th)
Worst Pick: Reuben Foster (2017, 1st)
San Francisco is another team that has drafted well, but has not found the answer at quarterback. That could change this year after the 49ers moved up to No. 3. Their 2017 draft shows how tricky the process is. First-round picks Solomon Thomas and Foster have been disappointments, while fifth-round pick Kittle has become a star.
8. Jaguars (8)
Pro Bowlers: 4
Best Pick: Jalen Ramsey (2016, 1st)
Worst Pick: Leonard Fournette (2017, 1st)
Jacksonville provides an example of how drafting well does not always lead to long-term success. The Jaguars have not been able to retain good players like Ramsey and Yannick Ngakoue and made a massive mistake in 2017 selecting Fournette over Mahomes and Watson.
9. Titans (18)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Derrick Henry (2016, 2nd)
Worst Pick: Isaiah Wilson (2020, 1st)
GM Jon Robinson has built a roster that is now a playoff contender every year. Henry is the best running back in football, and Kevin Byard was a great selection. One massive blemish on their drafting record is Wilson, who is currently out of football just one year after they took him in the first round.
10. Browns (14)
Pro Bowlers: 4
Best Pick: Myles Garrett (2017, 1st)
Worst Pick: Corey Coleman (2016, 1st)
Cleveland ended its playoff drought last season, and many of the Browns’ key players were homegrown. Garrett is a star, and Baker Mayfield showed a lot of promise in his third season.
11. Cowboys (4)
Pro Bowlers: 4
Best Pick: Dak Prescott (2016, 4th)
Worst Pick: Taco Charlton (2017, 1st)
Dallas had a great run of drafts in the middle of the decade, but has not fared as well recently. That 2016 class still boosts the Cowboys’ grade in this exercise, with Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Jaylon Smith all becoming good players.
12. Steelers (17)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: T.J. Watt (2017, 1st)
Worst Pick: Artie Burns (2016, 1st)
The Steelers’ average position for their first draft pick in the five years is 28.4. They have fared well considering they have drafted so low each year. Watt is right behind Aaron Donald in the conversation about the best defensive player in football.
13. Seahawks (9)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: DK Metcalf (2019, 2nd)
Worst Pick: Malik McDowell (2017, 2nd)
Seattle has had the second-most picks (49) over this span, with not enough to show for it. Metcalf is a stud, but GM John Schneider has missed on a lot of picks. Just ask Russell Wilson about his supporting cast.
14. Chargers (10)
Pro Bowlers: 2
Best Pick: Joey Bosa (2016, 1st)
Worst Pick: Forrest Lamp (2017, 2nd)
The Chargers drafted the Offensive Rookie of the Year last year, quarterback Justin Herbert. If he keeps improving, they will climb these rankings. A healthy Derwin James would also help their drafts look better.
15. Cardinals (16)
Pro Bowlers: 2
Best Pick: Budda Baker (2017, 2nd)
Worst Pick: Josh Rosen (2018, 1st)
Drafting quarterbacks in the top 10 in back-to-back years certainly is unorthodox, but it has worked out for Arizona. Kyler Murray, taken first overall in 2019, has played well in his first two years and looks like a longtime starting quarterback there.
16. Bills (23)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Tre’Davious White (2017, 1st)
Worst Pick: Reggie Ragland (2016, 2nd)
GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott have built a strong team in Buffalo largely through the draft. Josh Allen blossomed last year and looks like the real deal. On defense, players like White and Tremaine Edmunds have been highly productive.
17. Rams (5)
Pro Bowlers: 2
Best Pick: Jared Goff (2016, 1st)
Worst Pick: Gerald Everett (2017, 2nd)
The Rams have done pretty well if you consider they have not had a first-round pick since 2016, when they took Goff. Their average first pick has been 49.4. They have not drafted any stars, but have found some solid starters.
18. Packers (21)
Pro Bowlers: 4
Best Pick: Aaron Jones (2017, 5th)
Worst Pick: Jason Spriggs (2016, 2nd)
Aaron Rodgers surely wishes the Packers did more to surround him with talent, but Green Bay has not made terrible picks. Players like Kenny Clark and Jaire Alexander have hit, and Jones was a steal in the fifth round.
19. Lions (27)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Kenny Golladay (2017, 3rd)
Worst Pick: Teez Tabor (2017, 2nd)
Detroit should have more to show after 43 picks in the past five years and an average first pick of 13.6. Players like Frank Ragnow and T.J. Hockenson look like keepers, but the new regime just let Golladay walk and may be turning the roster over.
20. Falcons (6)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Austin Hooper (2016, 3rd)
Worst Pick: Takkarist McKinley (2017, 1st)
The Falcons have had just 31 picks in the past five years, the second-fewest in that span. Former GM Thomas Dimitroff lost his job this year in part because he did not hit on enough of those players, and Atlanta’s roster has gotten worse since its Super Bowl appearance in 2016.
21. Vikings (13)
Pro Bowlers: 2
Best Pick: Dalvin Cook (2017, 2nd)
Worst Pick: Laquon Treadwell (2016, 1st)
No one has had more picks in this time period than Minnesota with 54. The Vikings will probably rise in these rankings in future years, as their past two draft classes have shown a lot of promise. Justin Jefferson, last year’s first-round pick, looks like an All-Pro.
22. Broncos (29)
Pro Bowlers: 3
Best Pick: Justin Simmons (2016, 3rd)
Worst Pick: Paxton Lynch (2016, 1st)
The Broncos hired George Paton as their new GM, hoping he can restock their roster with talent after John Elway had plenty of misses in recent years. Lynch is one of the worst picks in the past five years.
23. Jets (24)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Jamal Adams (2017, 1st)
Worst Pick: Christian Hackenberg (2016, 2nd)
This may feel a little high for the Jets, who have drafted terribly, but Adams, though no longer with the team, is one of the best players chosen in the past five years. The Jets are the worst team in the NFL over this period (23 wins) and their drafting is a big reason why.
24. Giants (20)
Pro Bowlers: 2
Best Pick: Saquon Barkley (2018, 1st)
Worst Pick: Eli Apple (2016, 1st)
This time period reflects the end of the Jerry Reese era and the beginning of the Dave Gettleman era at GM. Neither went particularly well, but Gettleman picks like Barkley and Daniel Jones could make their drafting record look better soon.
25. Patriots (25)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Joe Thuney (2016, 3rd)
Worst Pick: Cyrus Jones (2016, 2nd)
Bill Belichick has had plenty of misses in the draft recently. His only Pro Bowl pick in the past five years is punter Jake Bailey. New England’s success has led to drafting late. The Patriots’ average first pick has been at No. 47. Still, it is surprising to see Belichick in this kind of personnel slump.
26. Texans (26)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Deshaun Watson (2017, 1st)
Worst Pick: Lonnie Johnson (2019, 2nd)
Houston did not have first-round picks in two of the five years and did not have a pick until the third round until 2018. Watson was a great pick at No. 12 before the trade demand and legal dramas of this offseason. Houston has done a poor job of surrounding him with talent.
27. Panthers (30)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Christian McCaffrey (2017, 1st)
Worst Pick: Vernon Butler (2016, 1st)
The Panthers have some young players who show promise and could develop into good players, but they are not quite there yet. McCaffrey struggled to stay on the field last year, but is dynamic when healthy. Last year’s all-defense draft produced some potential keepers in Jeremy Chinn and Derrick Brown.
28. Washington (22)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Chase Young (2020, 1st)
Worst Pick: Su’a Cravens (2016, 2nd)
Young was the Defensive Rookie of the Year last year and looks like a franchise cornerstone. Washington does not have much else to show from recent drafts. Dwayne Haskins turned out to be a terrible pick two years ago, and Washington is starting over at quarterback.
29. Bengals (31)
Pro Bowlers: 0
Best Pick: Tyler Boyd (2016, 2nd)
Worst Pick: John Ross (2017, 1st)
Joe Burrow looked like the real deal before a knee injury ended his rookie season last year. If he becomes a star, the Bengals will be rising in these rankings in the next few years. Other than Burrow, they have not gotten much else right.
30. Eagles (32)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Carson Wentz (2016, 1st)
Worst Pick: Sidney Jones (2017, 2nd)
If you’re trying to figure out why the Eagles have fallen apart since winning the Super Bowl, look at their drafts. They have done a poor job landing impact players. Wentz had some good years before fizzling out in Philadelphia, so I’ll still give him the nod as their best pick, but that tells you a lot.
31. Buccaneers (19)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Chris Godwin (2017, 3rd)
Worst Pick: Roberto Aguayo (2016, 2nd)
It surprised me that the defending Super Bowl champs graded so low in this exercise, but if you look at their 2016 and 2017 drafts, they have gotten very little out of them, aside from Godwin. Recent drafts show promise, with Devin White and Tristan Wirfs, and I suspect they will rank higher in the next few years.
32. Raiders (28)
Pro Bowlers: 1
Best Pick: Josh Jacobs (2019, 1st)
Worst Pick: Gareon Conley (2017, 1st)
Las Vegas has had some serious swings and misses in the draft. Conley is currently out of the league. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock nailed the Jacobs pick, and Maxx Crosby was a nice selection, but many of the Raiders’ other picks have failed to make an impact.
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