Works at ESPN Stats & Information

Eliminator Challenge is one of the simplest and most fun games during the NFL season. Pick one team to win each week. If that team wins, you advance to the next week. Lose once, and you’re out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.

While it sounds simple, getting a perfect season is always more difficult than it looks. The key is to find a good balance of picking winners while also keeping quality options open for future weeks.

Week 1 featured as much carnage as we have seen in a long time. 45% of ESPN Eliminator Challenge entrants were knocked out in Week 1 with the Broncos (16%), Titans (11%), 49ers (6%) and Bengals (4%) all falling. That doesn’t even include the Colts-Texans tie that resulted in advancement in ESPN but elimination in many other contests. It was the first time since 2005 that three six-point underdogs lost outright in Week 1.

If you were fortunate enough to survive Week 1, Week 2 is a much more traditional week with the largest favorites largely playing at home, compared to last week when the top plays were almost all on the road. Some of the biggest Week 1 disappointments are the biggest Week 2 favorites. Out of the six teams favored by at least a touchdown in Week 2, five lost outright in Week 1 (Rams, Broncos, Packers, 49ers, Bengals). Since 2000, teams favored by at least 7.5 points in Week 2 following a Week 1 loss are 20-2 outright, though they are just 7-15 ATS.

This week, all four of my top picks are coming off Week 1 losses, including my top play, the Denver Broncos.

Source: Read Full Article