Women’s NCAA Tournament Challenge early bracket trends and notes

We’ve spent weeks debating bubble teams, conference champions, and Bracketology, but now that the 2022 Women’s NCAA Tournament field has been revealed, it’s time to sign up and fill out your brackets.

Picking the right Final Four is a difficult task, especially with the depth of quality national championship contenders like UConn, Stanford, and South Carolina. Who are the most popular teams chosen as the public fills out their first brackets? Who are the trends underdogs and upsets so far?

Below are some early 2022 ESPN Tournament Challenge bracket trends as well as a look back at some selected 2021 NCAA Tournament results.

Monday, 10pm EST update:

After 24 hours, 55.3% of brackets have a 1-seed winning it all South Carolina has established themselves as the clear front-runner, as they’ve been picked to win it all in 33.4% of brackets

The most popular non-1-seeds to cut down the nets:

No. 2-seed UConn: 12.6%

  • No. 2-seed Iowa: 5.5%

  • No. 2-seed Baylor: 3.3%

  • No. 2-seed Texas: 2.1%

  • No. 3-seed Michigan: 1.7%

    • Overall, 8-9 games are always tough, but at the moment, all 4 8-seeds hold the edge in pick percentage.

    South Carolina (63.5%) and Stanford (60.6%) have distanced themselves from the field in terms of pick percentage to make the Final Four. No other team is picked to win their region even 44% of the time

    Upset special?

    Here are the most popular picks at each of the double digit seed lines to win their first round game:

    • No. 16-seed: Montana State (6.2%)

    • No. 15-seed: Hawai’i (7.7%)

    • No. 14-seed: Jackson State (9.8%)

    • No. 13-seed: Buffalo (12.6%)

    • No. 12-seed: Belmont (15.2%)

    • No. 11-seed: Villanova (30.8%)

    • No. 10-seed: Arkansas (40.5%)

    Whose program is most likely to win BOTH the men’s and women’s tournaments?

    Here are the top 5 in terms of cumulative title pick percentage (among schools represented in both tournaments

    • Gonzaga

    • Arizona

    • UConn

    • Kansas

    • Baylor

    Monday, 3pm EST update:

    Popular Tournament Champions

    South Carolina: 40.4% Picked in a higher percentage of brackets than the next 10 most popular winners COMBINED

  • UConn: 10.6%

  • Stanford: 8.4%

  • Iowa: 4.7%

    • Popular First Round Upsets (double digit seeds)

    10-seed Florida: 33.4%

  • 10-seed Arkansas: 32.7%

  • 10-seed Creighton: 31.3%

  • 11-seed Villanova: 25.3%

    • Is the 8-9 game no longer a coin toss?

    Every 8-seed is currently leading the charge, all being clicked through on over 54% of brackets

    • Miami: 64.8%

    • Kansas: 62.2%

    • Nebraska: 56.5%

    • Washington State: 54.7%

    2021 Recap

    Last season, 17.7% of brackets correctly picked Stanford to win it all. They were the second most popular pick, trailing only UConn’s 30%. When all was said and done last season, 63.4% of brackets had a 1-seed cutting down the nets.

    While the final result was “chalky”, it almost wasn’t. Arizona lost the title game in a result that would have swung many a pool. The Wildcats were picked to win it all in less than 1% of brackets (0.96% to be exact, making them the 12th most popular pick).

    Picking a unique champion is one way to gain on the field, but not the only way. Texas made a surprise run to the Elite 8 as a 6-seed last season, something 91.6% of brackets did NOT see coming. Pick and choose your spots, but one right call and you’re gaining on the majority of the field!

    In the first round last season, there were four double digit seeds (all 10-seeds) picked to advance in over 30% of brackets. Those four teams all lost in the first round.

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