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Russian government troops withdrew from the streets of Moscow and people flocked to parks and cafes Sunday following a short-lived revolt by mercenary forces that weakened President Vladimir Putin’s position and raised questions about his ability to wage war in Ukraine.

A man holds a placard in support of Russian President Vladimir Putin.Credit: Reuters

The march on the capital by Wagner troops led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and the late-night deal that eventually halted it severely dented Putin’s reputation as a leader who is willing to ruthlessly punish anyone who challenges his authority. That may open the door for others who are unhappy with Putin’s two-decade grip on power, especially after his ill-fated invasion of Ukraine.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the weekend’s events as “extraordinary,” recalling how Putin had appeared poised to seize the capital of Ukraine 16 months ago. Now, he’d been forced to defend his own capital.

“I think we’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian façade,” Blinken said on NBC’s Meet the Press. “It is too soon to tell exactly where they go and when they get there, but certainly we have all sorts of new questions that Putin is going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead.”

Under terms of the agreement, Prigozhin will go into exile in Belarus. Neither Putin nor Prigozhin has been heard from since the deal, reportedly brokered by Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko, was announced on Saturday night (local time).

Most of the troops deployed in Moscow to protect the capital from Wagner mercenaries had withdrawn by Sunday afternoon, allowing regular life to resume.Credit: AP

It was not yet clear what the fissures opened by the 24-hour rebellion would mean for the war in Ukraine, but it resulted in some of the best forces fighting for Russia being pulled from the battlefield: Prigozhin’s own Wagner troops and Chechen ones sent to stop them.

“These events will have been of great comfort to the Ukrainian government and the military,” said Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Another question is what will happen to the Prigozhin-owned Wagner company. The military contractor has forces in several countries where they are believed to fight for Russian interests.

Under the terms of the deal that stopped Prigozhin’s advance, Wagner troops who did not back the revolt will be offered contracts with the Russian military, putting them under the control of the military brass that Prigozhin had tried to oust.

The deal appears to be a “hasty” arrangement designed to protect Prigozhin and safeguard his money and his family, Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at St Andrews University in Scotland.

“What we don’t know is if he saved Wagner,” O’Brien wrote in his online newsletter. “It’s not clear how many of his mercenaries are coming with him to Belarus, or how many will be forced to now sign contracts with the Russian military.”

In their lightning advance, Prigozhin’s forces on Saturday took control of two military hubs in southern Russia and got within 200 kilometres of Moscow before retreating.

In a scene that plays into Putin’s fear of a popular uprising, video taken by the Associated Press on Saturday in Rostov-on-Don showed people cheering Wagner troops as they departed. Some ran to shake hands with Prigozhin as he departed in an SUV.

The regional governor later said that all of the troops had left the city. Russian news agencies also reported that Lipetsk authorities confirmed Wagner forces had left that region, which sits on the road to Moscow from Rostov.

Moscow’s Red Square was closed on Sunday, but the military presence was otherwise greatly reduced compared to Saturday. Credit: Reuters

Moscow had braced for the arrival of the Wagner forces by erecting checkpoints with armoured vehicles and troops on the city’s southern edge. About 3000 Chechen soldiers were pulled from fighting in Ukraine and rushed there early on Saturday, state television in Chechnya reported. Crews dug up sections of highways to slow the march.

By Sunday afternoon, the troops had withdrawn from the capital, and people swarmed the streets and flocked to cafes. Traffic returned to normal and roadblocks and checkpoints were removed, but Red Square remained closed to visitors. On highways leading to Moscow, crews repaired roads ripped up just hours earlier.

Anchors on state-controlled television stations cast the deal ending the crisis as a show of Putin’s wisdom and aired footage of Wagner troops retreating from Rostov-on-Don.

People there who were interviewed by Channel 1 hailed Putin’s role, but the US-based Institute for the Study of War warned that “the Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium.”

The “deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution,” wrote the institute, which has tracked the war in Ukraine from the beginning.

AP

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