Reed Kuhn is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and strategy and analytics consultant. He is the author of “Fightnomics: The Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts,” the first book to quantify drivers and performance metrics in combat sports.

Conor McGregor makes his dramatic return (again), but this time it’s to take a rematch against a previously defeated opponent, without access to a viable title shot. In his 2014 fight against Dustin Poirier, McGregor closed as a roughly 3-to-1 favorite — which is where he hovers during this current fight week — despite having opened at a far more affordable number. This scenario is nearly identical to McGregor’s last fight a year ago, where he knocked out Donald Cerrone in a first-round stunner. But where Cowboy Cerrone was already into a late career slide, Poirier has continued to impress and is getting better and better. So, the odds here might look familiar, but the trajectories of the matchup are very different.

Early prelims are at 6:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+, prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on PPV.

Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.

Lightweight main event: No. 4 Conor McGregor (-330) vs. No. 2 Dustin Poirier (+260)

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